Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Discount rate

Discount rate

The discount rate which is used in financial calculations is usually chosen to be equal to the cost of capital. Some adjustment may be made to the discount rate to take account of risks associated with uncertain cashflows, with other developments.

The discount rates typically applied to different types of companies show significant differences:

  • Startups seeking money: 50 – 100 %
  • Early Startups: 40 – 60 %
  • Late Startups: 30 – 50%
  • Mature Companies: 10 – 25%

Reason for high discount rates for startups:

  • Reduced marketability of ownerships because stocks are not traded publicly
  • Limited number of investors willing to invest
  • Startups face high risks
  • Over optimistic forecasts by enthusiastic founders.

One method that looks into a correct discount rate is the capital asset pricing model. This model takes in account three variables that make up the discount rate:

1. Risk Free Rate: The percentage of return generated by investing in risk free securities such as government bonds.

2. Beta: The measurement of how a company’s stock price reacts to a change in the market. A beta higher than 1 means that a change in share price is exaggerated compared to the rest of shares in the same market. A beta less than 1 means that the share is stable and not very responsive to changes in the market. Less than 0 means that a share is moving in the opposite of the market change.

3. Equity Market Risk Premium: The return on investment that investors require above the risk free rate.

Discount rate= risk free rate + beta*(equity market risk premium)

Six winning investment habits

THERE is a certain group of retailers that always seems to incur losses in the stock market. If we look into the reasons behind those losses, you will notice that instead of building up the right investment habits, they get caught up with a lot of bad investment habits.

In his book The Winning Investment Habits of Warren Buffett & George Soros, Mark Tier listed down 23 winning investment habits. Even though we disagree with the author on certain habits, we think there are six critical habits that can help investors make gains from the stock market.

Habit 1: Be risk-averse and preserve your capital

Some retailers have the misconception that being risk-averse in the stock market means making less money. Based on our observation, risk-averse investors are the ones that are able to make some gains despite the recent slump in the stock market.

In fact, risk-taking investors have been suffering huge losses lately. We believe investors need to be risk-averse and try your best to preserve your capital.

Even though investing in the stock market cannot guarantee returns, by being a risk-averse investor, you can still make good gains and have less risk of losing your capital.

According to Warren Buffett, buying good fundamental stocks can give high gains with lower risk. Risk-seeking investors normally get low returns while taking high risk. Hence, an investor that takes higher risk does not necessarily get compensated by higher returns.

Habit 2: Only invest in the business that you understand

A lot of investors do not understand the business of the companies that they invest in. They believe that they do not need to know that much detail as they can make fast money by listening to market rumours.

However, they do not realise that by the time they get the so-called first hand “insider information”, the market has already reacted to it and there is not much upside left to profit from.

Even worse, if after the purchase price goes down, the investors will be forced to either sell at a loss or hold for a longer term. If they understand the business, at least they would not end up buying poor fundamental stocks. The chances of good stocks appreciating in price are definitely higher than for the poorer ones.

Habit 3: Develop your own personal investing system

Some retailers are looking for a foolproof stock investing system that can consistently beat the stock market. They are willing to pay huge amounts of money to acquire that knowledge. We believe every investor should develop his own stock investing system that suits his individual needs and constraints.

All investing systems, whether based on fundamental or technical methods, require high levels of discipline and efforts. Unfortunately, most investors do not like to do homework. They believe there is someone somewhere who can beat the market all the time and all they need to do is to find him.

Hence, they will follow this so-called “guru” in buying stocks but are reluctant to follow his advice to cut losses. As a result, they will end up with a lot of poor fundamental stocks.

Habit 4: Always search for new investment opportunities

Investors need to develop the habit of always seeking new investment opportunities. In Malaysia, sometimes you may need to look at 10 stocks before you find one or two that are suitable for long-term investment.

The best available information on any company is always the annual reports and public announcements. Investors need to spend time analysing the information and then make their own calculation and check whether it is cheap to buy those stocks at the current price.

Habit 5: Have patience to wait for the right time and right stocks to invest

Sometimes, certain investors believe that they have to predict the market’s next move to make big returns. According to investment gurus like Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett, do not try to time the market, as you will always fail in predicting the next move.

Instead, what the investors really need to know is the value and the stock price of a company, rather than trying to predict market movement. Investors need to have the patience to wait for the right time and right stocks to invest.

As long as the stock price is selling far below the intrinsic value of the stock, you may consider buying those stocks even though the market may still be on the downtrend.

Habit 6: Able to hold on good fundamental stocks for long term

We believe all investors should own a portfolio of stocks that they will hold for the long term. As long as the businesses have the potential to grow and the companies are paying good dividends, investors need to develop the habit of holding the stocks for a longer term.

They should not be tempted to sell those stocks even if they may sometimes be trading at higher prices.

Extract from Ooi Kok Hwa

Thursday, December 20, 2007

My Investment Philosophies

  1. Invest Value-added BiZ
  2. BiZ with excellent track of record, excellent management and sustainable products
  3. Understand what I invest in
  4. Invest for Long Term
  5. Gd blend of Active & Passive investments
  6. Being a BiZ analyst, not a stock analyst
  7. Know my costs and keep them low
  8. *Diversify* through proper asset allocation- invest in stocks of different industries, economies

#1 STEP TO CREATING WEALTH

A PART OF ALL YOU EARN IS YOURS TO KEEP

  • Do not overstrain or try to save too much
  • Be content with what you keep
  • Enjoy Life

ACTION2008:I shall save $500/month into my investment account for which I would not touch for any expenses. Target: $10K in my investment account.

CONTROL YOUR EXPENDITURES

  • Live below your means

ACTION2008:I shall not spend on unnecessary things.

LET MONEY WORK FOR YOU

ACTION2008:I shall use my investment account to invest in stocks.

GUARD YOUR MONEY FROM LOSS

  • "Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" by Warren Buffett
  • Understand an investment before trying it
  • Seek advice from expertise of each field

ACTION2008:I shall do in-depth research on stocks before buying it. Long-term investment is ideal. No harsh movement! Give reasons why I am buying this stocks.

INSURE A FUTURE INCOME

  • Save for the rainy days

ACTION2008:My insurance with monthly premium of $90 has insured me. I need at least a month's pay in my expense account for any emergency use.

INCREASE YOUR ABILITY TO EARN

  • Desires must be SIMPLE and DEFINITE
  • The more of wisdom we know, the more we may earn

ACTION2008:I shall continue to increase my knowledge on finance. I shall give tuitions, 4hrs/week to increase my income, hence my savings.

reflection of The Richest Man in the Babylon

Monday, December 17, 2007

circle of competence


Outstanding businesses
  • are understandable
  • have strong balance sheet
  • have good economics (i.e., free cash flow that will grow, pricing power, high return on equity, and bright prospects)
  • have competitive advantages

Competent management

  • capable management
  • rational capital allocators
  • appropriate incentives
  • a shareholder orientation
  • share ownership by management

Great price

  • companies that trade at 75 percent or less of economic value
  • competitor analysis
  • multiple comparisons
  • present value of future owner earnings

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Phil Fisher's simple investment philosophies

  1. Invest for the long term
  2. Diversify your portfolio through proper asset allocation
  3. *Blend passive with active management*
  4. Know your costs and keep them low

*I shall invest in both Stocks and Index funds/ETFs/Bonds/REITs*

Warren Buffett's Investment Principles

  1. Know what you own
  2. Research before you buy
  3. Own a business, not a stock
  4. Make a total of only twnety lifetime investments
  5. Make one decision to won a stock and be a long-term owner